A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
